Archetyp Links

In the lead up to the 5 November, our correspondents stateside are answering your questions on the election. Do you feel the election result has the potential to cause unrest or has the US learnt its lesson? Gary, Kilmarnock US correspondent Mark Stone says... You hear the phrase 'civil war' far too much these days here in America. Uncomfortable as this is, we are not there. That's the good news. But we are now in a realm where something once considered impossible in modern America is now being contemplated. The tensions and anxieties in America right now are profound. The nation is divided. There is an urban-rural split too. Nothing much new there. But it runs deeper now. The nation is siloed as well. Different sides do not trust each other; they do not listen to each other's perspectives. It's easy perhaps to miss this deep societal fracture precisely because of the siloed nature of the country. It's only as an outsider, living here, looking in and having the conversations across the spectrum that I notice this profound mess. The mainstream media in America, which has become deeply partisan, is not trusted. "I get my news online" is a phrase I hear all the time. That's not healthy. The institutions which act as balancing guardrails are creaking, some would say they are compromised. One of the two candidates in this election consistently undermines the electoral process and the judicial process, sowing doubt among his followers. All this was dangerous even before Donald Trump propelled himself back to within an inch of the White House again. During Mr Trump's last presidency, the institutions which act as guardrails upholding a democracy - like the courts, the military, state level officials - stood their ground. The danger this time is that a victorious Donald Trump would hire only those officials who are fully loyal to him. He has made this clear. Remember, too, that the power of the American presidency under a president who doesn't care about the law is huge. Some experts argue that America has already entered a zone where it is no longer a fully-fledged democracy. It's not an autocracy, but in a middle zone they call an 'anocracy' because of an erosion within some of the key pillars. That's the important context through which the 'civil war' question should be considered. This result of this election will almost certainly be very close. Recounts and claims of fraud (compounded on the Trump side by baked in mistrust) are very likely. A narrow Harris victory would probably prompt Trumpian accusations of fraud. These would be examined by courts he has already undermined and maybe then elevated to the highest court - the Supreme Court - which he loaded with his aligned judges in his last term. We all remember the January 6th nightmare on Capitol Hill. A dress-rehearsal? Let's hope not. But the prospect of unrest in state Capitol buildings in various states, where Trump-aligned politicians hold key positions, is real. Another scenario: Trump wins, perhaps comfortably. Then, the danger is protests - which could turn violent - from the left who may react against Mr Trump's policies which they will see as a slide to authoritarianism. So - do I feel the election result has the potential to cause unrest? Yes. Has the US learnt its lesson? No.